ICH S1 prospective evaluation study: weight of evidence approach to predict outcome and value of 2-year rat carcinogenicity studies. A report from the regulatory authorities subgroup.

Introduction: The International Council for Harmonisation of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH) initiated a process in 2012 to revise the S1B Guideline "Testing for Carcinogenicity of Pharmaceuticals". Previous retrospective analysis indicated the importance of histopathological risk factors in chronic toxicity studies, evidence of endocrine perturbation, and positive genetic toxicology results as potentially predictive indicators of carcinogenic risk. In addition, a relationship between pharmacodynamic activity and carcinogenicity outcome in long-term rodent studies has been reported. It was postulated that these factors could be evaluated in a Weight-of-Evidence (WoE) approach to predict the outcome of a 2-year rat study. Methods: The ICH S1B(R1) Expert Working Group (EWG) conducted a Prospective Evaluation Study (PES) to determine the regulatory feasibility of this WoE approach. Drug Regulatory Authorities (DRAs) evaluated 49 Carcinogenicity Assessment Documents (CADs), which describe the WoE for submitted pharmaceutical compounds. Each compound was categorized into a carcinogenic risk category including a statement of the value of the 2-year rat study. The outcome of the completed 2-year rat studies was evaluated in relation to the prospective CAD to determine the accuracy of predictions. Results: Based on the results of the PES, the EWG concluded that the evaluation process for assessing human carcinogenic risk of pharmaceuticals described in ICH S1B could be expanded to include a WoE approach. Approximately 27% of 2-year rat studies could be avoided in cases where DRAs and sponsors unanimously agreed that such a study would not add value. Discussion: Key factors supporting a WoE assessment were identified: data that inform carcinogenic potential based on drug target biology and the primary pharmacologic mechanism of the parent compound and major human metabolites; results from secondary pharmacology screens for this compound and major human metabolites that inform carcinogenic risk; histopathology data from repeated-dose toxicity studies; evidence for hormonal perturbation; genotoxicity data; and evidence of immune modulation. The outcome of the PES indicates that a WoE approach can be used in place of conducting a 2-year rat study for some pharmaceuticals. These data were used by the ICH S1B(R1) EWG to write the R1 Addendum to the S1B Guideline published in August 2022.

Structural and time-resolved mechanistic investigations of protein hydrolysis by the acidic proline-specific endoprotease from Aspergillus niger.

Proline-specific endoproteases have been successfully used in, for example, the in-situ degradation of gluten, the hydrolysis of bitter peptides, the reduction of haze during beer production, and the generation of peptides for mass spectroscopy and proteomics applications. Here we present the crystal structure of the extracellular proline-specific endoprotease from Aspergillus niger (AnPEP), a member of the S28 peptidase family with rarely observed true proline-specific endoprotease activity. Family S28 proteases have a conventional Ser-Asp-His catalytic triad, but their oxyanion-stabilizing hole shows a glutamic acid, an amino acid not previously observed in this role. Since these enzymes have an acidic pH optimum, the presence of a glutamic acid in the oxyanion hole may confine their activity to an acidic pH. Yet, considering the presence of the conventional catalytic triad, it is remarkable that the A. niger enzyme remains active down to pH 1.5. The determination of the primary cleavage site of cytochrome c along with molecular dynamics-assisted docking studies indicate that the active site pocket of AnPEP can accommodate a reverse turn of approximately 12 amino acids with proline at the S1 specificity pocket. Comparison with the structures of two S28-proline-specific exopeptidases reveals not only a more spacious active site cavity but also the absence of any putative binding sites for amino- and carboxyl-terminal residues as observed in the exopeptidases, explaining AnPEP's observed endoprotease activity.

Cohort profile: The Corona Behavioral Unit cohort, a longitudinal mixed-methods study on COVID-19-related behavior, well-being and policy support in the Netherlands.

This 'cohort profile' aims to provide a description of the study design, methodology, and baseline characteristics of the participants in the Corona Behavioral Unit cohort. This cohort was established in response to the COVID-19 pandemic by the Dutch National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) and the regional public health services. The aim was to investigate adherence of and support for COVID-19 prevention measures, psychosocial determinants of COVID-19 behaviors, well-being, COVID-19 vaccination, and media use. The cohort also examined specific motivations and beliefs, such as for vaccination, which were collected through either closed-ended items or open text responses. In April 2020, 89,943 participants aged 16 years and older were recruited from existing nation-wide panels. Between May 2020 and September 2022, 99,676 additional participants were recruited through online social media platforms and mailing lists of higher education organizations. Participants who consented were initially invited every three weeks (5 rounds), then every six weeks (13 rounds), and since the summer of 2022 every 12 weeks (3 rounds). To date, 66% of participants were female, 30% were 39 years and younger, and 54% completed two or more questionnaires, with an average of 9.2 (SD = 5.7) questionnaires. The Corona Behavioral Unit COVID-19 cohort has published detailed insights into longitudinal patterns of COVID-19 related behaviors, support of COVID-19 preventive measures, as well as peoples' mental wellbeing in relation to the stringency of these measures. The results have informed COVID-19 policy making and pandemic communication in the Netherlands throughout the COVID-19 pandemic. The cohort data will continuously be used to examine COVID-19 related outcomes for scientific analyses, as well as to inform future pandemic preparedness plans.

A Collaborative Initiative to Establish Genomic Biomarkers for Assessing Tumorigenic Potential to Reduce Reliance on Conventional Rodent Carcinogenicity Studies.

There is growing recognition across broad sectors of the scientific community that use of genomic biomarkers has the potential to reduce the need for conventional rodent carcinogenicity studies of industrial chemicals, agrochemicals, and pharmaceuticals through a weight-of-evidence approach. These biomarkers fall into 2 major categories: (1) sets of gene transcripts that can identify distinct tumorigenic mechanisms of action; and (2) cancer driver gene mutations indicative of rapidly expanding growth-advantaged clonal cell populations. This call-to-action article describes a collaborative approach launched to develop and qualify biomarker gene expression panels that measure widely accepted molecular pathways linked to tumorigenesis and their activation levels to predict tumorigenic doses of chemicals from short-term exposures. Growing evidence suggests that application of such biomarker panels in short-term exposure rodent studies can identify both tumorigenic hazard and tumorigenic activation levels for chemical-induced carcinogenicity. In the future, this approach will be expanded to include methodologies examining mutations in key cancer driver gene mutation hotspots as biomarkers of both genotoxic and nongenotoxic chemical tumor risk. Analytical, technical, and biological validation studies of these complementary genomic tools are being undertaken by multisector and multidisciplinary collaborative teams within the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute. Success from these efforts will facilitate the transition from current heavy reliance on conventional 2-year rodent carcinogenicity studies to more rapid animal- and resource-sparing approaches for mechanism-based carcinogenicity evaluation supporting internal and regulatory decision-making.

Evaluation of an imaging-based in vitro screening platform for estrogenic activity with OECD reference chemicals.

Estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) is often a primary target of endocrine disrupting chemicals (EDCs) and therefore several biochemical and cell-based assays for the detection of chemicals with estrogenic properties have been developed in the past. However, the current approaches are not suitable for the monitoring of pathway activation dynamics, and they are mostly based on expression constructs that lack physiological promoter regulation. We recently developed MCF7 fluorescent reporter cell lines of 3 different green fluorescent protein (GFP)-tagged ERα target genes: GREB1, PGR and TFF1. These reporters are under control of the full physiological promoter region and allow the monitoring of dynamic pro-proliferative pathway activation on a single cell level using a live-cell imaging set-up. In this study, we systematically characterized the response of these reporters to a full reference compound set of known estrogenic and non-estrogenic chemicals as defined by the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development (OECD). We linked activation of the pro-proliferative ERα pathway to a potential adverse outcome by additionally monitoring cell cycle progression and proliferation. The correct classification of the OECD reference compounds showed that our reporter platform has the same sensitivity and specificity as other validated artificial ERα pathway reporters, such as the ERα CALUX and VM7 Luc ER TA assay. By monitoring several key events (i.e. ER target activation, cell cycle progression and proliferation), and subsequently determining Point-of-Departure (POD) values, our reporter panel can be used in high-throughput testing for a physiologically more relevant, quantitative temporal endocrine modulation analysis to improve human carcinogen risk assessment.

Physiologically Relevant Estrogen Receptor Alpha Pathway Reporters for Single-Cell Imaging-Based Carcinogenic Hazard Assessment of Estrogenic Compounds.

Estrogen receptor alpha (ERα) belongs to the nuclear hormone receptor family of ligand-inducible transcription factors and regulates gene networks in biological processes such as cell growth and proliferation. Disruption of these networks by chemical compounds with estrogenic activity can result in adverse outcomes such as unscheduled cell proliferation, ultimately culminating in tumor formation. To distinguish disruptive activation from normal physiological responses, it is essential to quantify relationships between different key events leading to a particular adverse outcome. For this purpose, we established fluorescent protein MCF7 reporter cell lines for ERα-induced proliferation by bacterial artificial chromosome-based tagging of 3 ERα target genes: GREB1, PGR, and TFF1. These target genes are inducible by the non-genotoxic carcinogen and ERα agonist 17ß-estradiol in an ERα-dependent manner and are essential for ERα-dependent cell-cycle progression and proliferation. The 3 GFP reporter cell lines were characterized in detail and showed different activation dynamics upon exposure to 17ß-estradiol. In addition, they demonstrated specific activation in response to other established reference estrogenic compounds of different potencies, with similar sensitivities as validated OECD test methods. This study shows that these fluorescent reporter cell lines can be used to monitor the spatial and temporal dynamics of ERα pathway activation at the single-cell level for more mechanistic insight, thereby allowing a detailed assessment of the potential carcinogenic activity of estrogenic compounds in humans.

Mining scientific advice reports on cell-based products: Insight into the nonclinical development program.

AIMS: The field of cell-based therapies for human diseases is currently evolving from promising treatment options to established therapeutic concepts. The design of the nonclinical development program for cell-based products, intended to provide a rationale for treatment and to gain insight into the safety profile, is challenging because of limitations caused by species-specificity. The elements of the nonclinical package for cell-based products were evaluated using advice reports from the European Medicines Agency database from 2013 to 2018 to identify the approach followed for nonclinical development of these products. METHODS: The number and purpose of proposed and performed in vivo studies was recorded, as well as the type and design of in vitro and in vivo studies addressing biodistribution and tumorigenicity. Subsequently, the nonclinical development program was analysed for consistency across products. RESULTS: In vivo studies for cell-based therapies were primarily aimed at proof-of-concept (75/86), followed by addressing safety (64/86), biodistribution (49/86) and tumourigenicity (46/86). No animal studies were performed or proposed by sponsors or regulators for 6/86 products which contained cell types that have been studied in humans for a relatively long time. For one-third of the products in vivo biodistribution and/or tumourigenicity studies were not considered necessary. in vivo tumourigenicity studies were regarded as having limited value. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to more conventional medicinal products, the nonclinical development program for cell-based products was more tailored and focused on proof-of-concept. For tumourigenicity an in vitro approach may suffice. Total omission of in vivo studies appears to be possible for products with sufficient clinical experience.

Towards a mechanism-based approach for the prediction of nongenotoxic carcinogenic potential of agrochemicals.

Chemical substances are subjected to assessment of genotoxic and carcinogenic effects before being marketed to protect man and the environment from health risks. For agrochemicals, the long-term rodent carcinogenicity study is currently required from a regulatory perspective. Although it is the current mainstay for the detection of nongenotoxic carcinogens, carcinogenicity studies are shown to have prominent weaknesses and are subject to ethical and scientific debate. A transition toward a mechanism-based weight-of-evidence approach is considered a requirement to enhance the prediction of carcinogenic potential for environmental (agro)chemicals. The resulting approach should make optimal use of innovative (computational) tools and be less animal demanding. To identify the various mode of actions (MOAs) underlying the nongenotoxic carcinogenic potential of agrochemicals, we conducted an extensive analysis of 411 unique agrochemicals that have been evaluated for carcinogenicity by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) and the European Chemicals Agency (ECHA). About one-third of these substances could be categorized as nongenotoxic carcinogens with an average of approximately two tumor types per substance, observed in a variety of organs. For two-third of the tumor cases, an underlying MOA (network) could be identified. This analysis demonstrates that a limited set of MOA (networks) is underlying nongenotoxic carcinogenicity of agrochemicals, illustrating that the transition toward a MOA-driven approach appears manageable. Ultimately the approach should cover relevant MOAs and its associated key events; this will also facilitate the evaluation of the human relevance. This manuscript describes the results of the analysis while identifying knowledge gaps and necessities to achieve a mechanism-based weight-of-evidence approach.

A comprehensive view on mechanistic approaches for cancer risk assessment of non-genotoxic agrochemicals.

Currently the only methods for non-genotoxic carcinogenic hazard assessment accepted by most regulatory authorities are lifetime carcinogenicity studies. However, these involve the use of large numbers of animals and the relevance of their predictive power and results has been scientifically challenged. With increased availability of innovative test methods and enhanced understanding of carcinogenic processes, it is believed that tumour formation can now be better predicted using mechanistic information. A workshop organised by the European Partnership on Alternative Approaches to Animal Testing brought together experts to discuss an alternative, mechanism-based approach for cancer risk assessment of agrochemicals. Data from a toolbox of test methods for detecting modes of action (MOAs) underlying non-genotoxic carcinogenicity are combined with information from subchronic toxicity studies in a weight-of-evidence approach to identify carcinogenic potential of a test substance. The workshop included interactive sessions to discuss the approach using case studies. These showed that fine-tuning is needed, to build confidence in the proposed approach, to ensure scientific correctness, and to address different regulatory needs. This novel approach was considered realistic, and its regulatory acceptance and implementation can be facilitated in the coming years through continued dialogue between all stakeholders and building confidence in alternative approaches.

Nonclinical regulatory immunotoxicity testing of nanomedicinal products: Proposed strategy and possible pitfalls.

Various nanomedicinal products (NMPs) have been reported to induce an adverse immune response, which may be related to their tendency to accumulate in or target cells of the immune system. Therefore, before their market authorization, NMPs should be thoroughly evaluated for their immunotoxic potential. Nonclinical regulatory immunotoxicity testing of nonbiological medicinal products, including NMPs, is currently performed by following the guideline S8 "Immunotoxicity Studies for Human Pharmaceuticals" of the International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH). However, this guideline does not cover all the immunotoxicity endpoints reported for NMPs in the literature, such as complement activation related pseudo allergy, hypersensitivity and immunosuppression. In addition, ICH-S8 does not provide any nanospecific testing considerations, which is important given their tendency to interfere with many commonly used toxicity assays. We therefore propose a nonclinical regulatory immunotoxicity assessment strategy, which considers the immunotoxicity endpoints currently missing in the ICH-S8. We also list the known pitfalls related to the testing of NMPs and how to tackle them. Next to defining the relevant physicochemical and pharmacokinetic properties of the NMP and its intended use, the proposed strategy includes an in vitro assay battery addressing various relevant immunotoxicity endpoints. A weight of evidence evaluation of this information can be used to shape the type and design of further in vivo investigations. The final outcome of the immunotoxicity assessment can be included in the overall risk assessment of the NMP and provide alerts for relevant endpoints to address during clinical investigation. This article is categorized under: Toxicology and Regulatory Issues in Nanomedicine > Regulatory and Policy Issues in Nanomedicine Toxicology and Regulatory Issues in Nanomedicine > Toxicology of Nanomaterials.

Shared Learnings on the New EMA First-in-Human and Early Clinical Trial Guideline: Proceedings From a DIAlogue Session at DIA Europe 2018.

The EU is a member of the International Council for Harmonization of Technical Requirements for Pharmaceuticals for Human Use (ICH), and therefore adopts the ICH Guidelines, including the ICH M3 Guideline on Nonclinical Safety Studies. Following the 2016 incident in France with BIA 10-2474, and in light of the substantial evolvement of how early clinical development has been undertaken during the last 10 years, for example, conducting integrated (FIH) studies that include multiple parts (eg, single ascending doses, multiple ascending doses, food effect), EMA decided to update the existing 2007 FIH guideline. The key revisions to the 2007 guideline, now titled "Guideline on Strategies to Identify and Mitigate Risks for First-in-Human and Early Clinical Trials With Investigational Medicinal Products," include additional information. The revision reinforces the importance and impact of pharmacologic data, which supports the intended efficacy of the compound, risk assessment, and protocol design. The updates, effective February 2018, are intended to provide additional guidance and clarity for Sponsors developing FIH and early phase clinical research programs, and ultimately support subject safety. At the 2018 DIA Europe Annual Meeting in Basel, Switzerland, European regulators, industry representatives and academics convened a DIAlogue Session on April 17 to discuss how the revised 2017 guideline is being applied, and to establish recommendations for its application. Using two case studies as examples, the session participants discussed the nonclinical and clinical considerations for applying the newly revised recommendations, and interacted with a panel including regulators and industry representatives. The proceedings from this session reflect practical considerations for the implementation of the revised guideline.

A cross-sector call to improve carcinogenicity risk assessment through use of genomic methodologies.

Robust genomic approaches are now available to realize improvements in efficiencies and translational relevance of cancer risk assessments for drugs and chemicals. Mechanistic and pathway data generated via genomics provide opportunities to advance beyond historical reliance on apical endpoints of uncertain human relevance. Published research and regulatory evaluations include many examples for which genomic data have been applied to address cancer risk assessment as a health protection endpoint. The alignment of mature, robust, reproducible, and affordable technologies with increasing demands for reduced animal testing sets the stage for this important transition. We present our shared vision for change from leading scientists from academic, government, nonprofit, and industrial sectors and chemical and pharmaceutical safety applications. This call to action builds upon a 2017 workshop on "Advances and Roadblocks for Use of Genomics in Cancer Risk Assessment." The authors propose a path for implementation of innovative cancer risk assessment including incorporating genomic signatures to assess mechanistic relevance of carcinogenicity and enhanced use of genomics in benchmark dose and point of departure evaluations. Novel opportunities for the chemical and pharmaceutical sectors to combine expertise, resources, and objectives to achieve a common goal of improved human health protection are identified.

Evaluation of Juvenile Animal Studies for Pediatric CNS-Targeted Compounds: A Regulatory Perspective.

Central nervous system (CNS)-targeted products are an important category of pediatric pharmaceuticals. In view of the significant postnatal maturation of the CNS, juvenile animal studies (JAS) are performed to support pediatric development of these new medicines. In this project, the design and results of juvenile toxicity studies from 15 drug compounds for the treatment of neurologic or psychiatric conditions were analyzed. Studies were conducted mostly in rats; sometimes in addition in dogs and monkeys. The study design of the pivotal JAS was variable, even for compounds with a similar therapeutic indication. Age of the juvenile animals was not consistently related to the starting age of the intended patient population. Of 15 compounds analyzed, 6 JAS detected more severe toxicities and 6 JAS evidenced novel CNS effects compared to their adult counterparts. The effects of CNS on acoustic startle and learning and memory were observed at high dosages. Reversibility was tested in most cases and revealed some small effects that were retained or only uncovered after termination of treatment. The interpretation of the relevance of these findings was often hampered by the lack of matching end points in the adult studies or inappropriate study designs. Detailed clinical observation and motor activity measures were the most powerful end points to detect juvenile CNS effects. The need for more detailed behavioral examinations in JAS, for example, on learning and memory, should, therefore, be decided upon on a case-by-case basis, based on specific concerns in order to avoid overloading the studies.

Is current risk assessment of non-genotoxic carcinogens protective?

Non-genotoxic carcinogens (NGTXCs) do not cause direct DNA damage but induce cancer via other mechanisms. In risk assessment of chemicals and pharmaceuticals, carcinogenic risks are determined using carcinogenicity studies in rodents. With the aim to reduce animal testing, REACH legislation states that carcinogenicity studies are only allowed when specific concerns are present; risk assessment of compounds that are potentially carcinogenic by a non-genotoxic mode of action is usually based on subchronic toxicity studies. Health-based guidance values (HBGVs) of NGTXCs may therefore be based on data from carcinogenicity or subchronic toxicity studies depending on the legal framework that applies. HBGVs are usually derived from No-Observed-Adverse-Effect-Levels (NOAELs). Here, we investigate whether current risk assessment of NGTXCs based on NOAELs is protective against cancer. To answer this question, we estimated Benchmark doses (BMDs) for carcinogenicity data of 44 known NGTXCs. These BMDs were compared to the NOAELs derived from the same carcinogenicity studies, as well as to the NOAELs derived from the associated subchronic studies. The results lead to two main conclusions. First, a NOAEL derived from a subchronic study is similar to a NOAEL based on cancer effects from a carcinogenicity study, supporting the current practice in REACH. Second, both the subchronic and cancer NOAELs are, on average, associated with a cancer risk of around 1% in rodents. This implies that for those chemicals that are potentially carcinogenic in humans, current risk assessment of NGTXCs may not be completely protective against cancer. Our results call for a broader discussion within the scientific community, followed by discussions among risk assessors, policy makers, and other stakeholders as to whether or not the potential cancer risk levels that appear to be associated with currently derived HBGVs of NGXTCs are acceptable.

Identification of Requirements for Computer-Supported Matching of Food Consumption Data with Food Composition Data.

This paper identifies the requirements for computer-supported food matching, in order to address not only national and European but also international current related needs and represents an integrated research contribution of the FP7 EuroDISH project. The available classification and coding systems and the specific problems of food matching are summarized and a new concept for food matching based on optimization methods and machine-based learning is proposed. To illustrate and test this concept, a study has been conducted in four European countries (i.e., Germany, The Netherlands, Italy and the UK) using different classification and coding systems. This real case study enabled us to evaluate the new food matching concept and provide further recommendations for future work. In the first stage of the study, we prepared subsets of food consumption data described and classified using different systems, that had already been manually matched with national food composition data. Once the food matching algorithm was trained using this data, testing was performed on another subset of food consumption data. Experts from different countries validated food matching between consumption and composition data by selecting best matches from the options given by the matching algorithm without seeing the result of the previously made manual match. The evaluation of study results stressed the importance of the role and quality of the food composition database as compared to the selected classification and/or coding systems and the need to continue compiling national food composition data as eating habits and national dishes still vary between countries. Although some countries managed to collect extensive sets of food consumption data, these cannot be easily matched with food composition data if either food consumption or food composition data are not properly classified and described using any classification and coding systems. The study also showed that the level of human expertise played an important role, at least in the training stage. Both sets of data require continuous development to improve their quality in dietary assessment.

Challenges and opportunities for the future of monoclonal antibody development: Improving safety assessment and reducing animal use.

The market for biotherapeutic monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) is large and is growing rapidly. However, attrition poses a significant challenge for the development of mAbs, and for biopharmaceuticals in general, with large associated costs in resource and animal use. Termination of candidate mAbs may occur due to poor translation from preclinical models to human safety. It is critical that the industry addresses this problem to maintain productivity. Though attrition poses a significant challenge for pharmaceuticals in general, there are specific challenges related to the development of antibody-based products. Due to species specificity, non-human primates (NHP) are frequently the only pharmacologically relevant species for nonclinical safety and toxicology testing for the majority of antibody-based products, and therefore, as more mAbs are developed, increased NHP use is anticipated. The integration of new and emerging in vitro and in silico technologies, e.g., cell- and tissue-based approaches, systems pharmacology and modeling, have the potential to improve the human safety prediction and the therapeutic mAb development process, while reducing and refining animal use simultaneously. In 2014, to engage in open discussion about the challenges and opportunities for the future of mAb development, a workshop was held with over 60 regulators and experts in drug development, mechanistic toxicology and emerging technologies to discuss this issue. The workshop used industry case-studies to discuss the value of the in vivo studies and identify opportunities for in vitro technologies in human safety assessment. From these and continuing discussions it is clear that there are opportunities to improve safety assessment in mAb development using non-animal technologies, potentially reducing future attrition, and there is a shared desire to reduce animal use through minimised study design and reduced numbers of studies.

Prediction of thyroid C-cell carcinogenicity after chronic administration of GLP1-R agonists in rodents.

Increased incidence of C-cell carcinogenicity has been observed for glucagon-like-protein-1 receptor (GLP-1r) agonists in rodents. It is suggested that the duration of exposure is an indicator of carcinogenic potential in rodents of the different products on the market. Furthermore, the role of GLP-1-related mechanisms in the induction of C-cell carcinogenicity has gained increased attention by regulatory agencies. This study proposes an integrative pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PKPD) framework to identify explanatory factors and characterize differences in carcinogenic potential of the GLP-1r agonist products. PK models for four products (exenatide QW (once weekly), exenatide BID (twice daily), liraglutide and lixisenatide) were developed using nonlinear mixed effects modelling. Predicted exposure was subsequently linked to GLP-1r stimulation using in vitro GLP-1r potency data. A logistic regression model was then applied to exenatide QW and liraglutide data to assess the relationship between GLP-1r stimulation and thyroid C-cell hyperplasia incidence as pre-neoplastic predictor of a carcinogenic response. The model showed a significant association between predicted GLP-1r stimulation and C-cell hyperplasia after 2years of treatment. The predictive performance of the model was evaluated using lixisenatide, for which hyperplasia data were accurately described during the validation step. The use of a model-based approach provided insight into the relationship between C-cell hyperplasia and GLP-1r stimulation for all four products, which is not possible with traditional data analysis methods. It can be concluded that both pharmacokinetics (exposure) and pharmacodynamics (potency for GLP-1r) factors determine C-cell hyperplasia incidence in rodents. Our work highlights the pharmacological basis for GLP-1r agonist-induced C-cell carcinogenicity. The concept is promising for application to other drug classes.